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Here's a hand I played in a tournament recently, I'd like to hear your comments on my analysis.
The blinds are 25 and 50(pot=75). With two loose limpers ahead of me, I decide to limp from a middle position with A T (pot=225). There's a limp behind me followed by a +250 raise on the button from a tight, somewhat predictable player(pot=575). Both
Yes, the pot is laying me 2.33:1 on a 2:1 shot, but my odds are 2:1 assuming that I only win as often as my cards allow me to. When I made the call, I took into account the odds that I could bluff my opponent, so I figured my +EV was higher than it should be.
Here's how it worked out... The limper behind me folds, and out comes the flop.
The blinds are 25 and 50(pot=75). With two loose limpers ahead of me, I decide to limp from a middle position with A T (pot=225). There's a limp behind me followed by a +250 raise on the button from a tight, somewhat predictable player(pot=575). Both
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loose limpers fold, and the action is on me. Judging by a tell I have on the player, combined with his tendency to only raise his big pairs with so many people limping into the pot, I put him on KK or QQ. It costs me 250, so the pot is laying me about 2.33:1 odds, and my hand will beat KK or QQ about 33% of the time(2:1), so I call(pot=825), but not for the reasons most people would.Yes, the pot is laying me 2.33:1 on a 2:1 shot, but my odds are 2:1 assuming that I only win as often as my cards allow me to. When I made the call, I took into account the odds that I could bluff my opponent, so I figured my +EV was higher than it should be.
Here's how it worked out... The limper behind me folds, and out comes the flop.

1 Comments:
Hi - I'm trying to create a blog based on using monte carlo simulation to calculate poker odds. I'd love it if you checked it out and left feedback/any ideas you might have for future simulations:
http://montecarlopoker.blogspot.com/
Thanks!
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