<body><script type="text/javascript"> function setAttributeOnload(object, attribute, val) { if(window.addEventListener) { window.addEventListener("load", function(){ object[attribute] = val; }, false); } else { window.attachEvent('onload', function(){ object[attribute] = val; }); } } </script> <iframe src="http://www.blogger.com/navbar.g?targetBlogID=9395898&amp;blogName=Tim+Gilberg+Top+Ebay+Sales+Trainer&amp;publishMode=PUBLISH_MODE_BLOGSPOT&amp;navbarType=BLUE&amp;layoutType=CLASSIC&amp;searchRoot=http%3A%2F%2Fpoker-set.blogspot.com%2Fsearch&amp;blogLocale=en_US&amp;homepageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fpoker-set.blogspot.com%2F" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" height="30px" width="100%" id="navbar-iframe" allowtransparency="true" title="Blogger Navigation and Search"></iframe> <div></div>

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Poker Fools Gold

Here's a hand I played in a tournament recently, I'd like to hear your comments on my analysis.

The blinds are 25 and 50(pot=75). With two loose limpers ahead of me, I decide to limp from a middle position with A T (pot=225). There's a limp behind me followed by a +250 raise on the button from a tight, somewhat predictable player(pot=575). Both



The World Series of Poker is the Place even a newbie can win a million


Instead of watching on TV Play Texas Holdem Poker online


Where does the cash go you might ask?

loose limpers fold, and the action is on me. Judging by a tell I have on the player, combined with his tendency to only raise his big pairs with so many people limping into the pot, I put him on KK or QQ. It costs me 250, so the pot is laying me about 2.33:1 odds, and my hand will beat KK or QQ about 33% of the time(2:1), so I call(pot=825), but not for the reasons most people would.

Yes, the pot is laying me 2.33:1 on a 2:1 shot, but my odds are 2:1 assuming that I only win as often as my cards allow me to. When I made the call, I took into account the odds that I could bluff my opponent, so I figured my +EV was higher than it should be.

Here's how it worked out... The limper behind me folds, and out comes the flop.

1 Comments:

Blogger PokerBot72 said...

Hi - I'm trying to create a blog based on using monte carlo simulation to calculate poker odds. I'd love it if you checked it out and left feedback/any ideas you might have for future simulations:

http://montecarlopoker.blogspot.com/

Thanks!

6:35 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home